Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

Grand Solar Minimum: Science behind the cycles and effects, as well as historical analysis.
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anomalous howard
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Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#1 Post by anomalous howard » Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:12 pm

A GSM of a different color:
See the horizontal blue band tracking above 10...it's at just about 12. That's a scale of degrees on the left.
This is a track of the Magnetic North Pole's position relative to a tracking station in London.
Sept 16 to Oct 16 2018
Image

About a year ago it was solidly on 10 degrees. (You can just make out the rising slope of the band during the one month of readings below) It's moved 2 degrees in the last year as seen by the difference between the above and below charts. If I recall correctly, one degree is about 74 kms as triangulated from the measuring station.
Oct 14 to Nov 9 2017
Image

His complete series of readings is here:
http://www.poleshiftnews.com/tri-mag-data.html

His youtube channel is here:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5eyIt ... kVBcpyGpRw


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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#2 Post by dirtmurphy » Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:45 pm

I've been wondering if the earth's pole shift combined with the solar pole movement is a contributing factor in the earth facing quiet. Something to do with magnetic cancellation. Any thoughts?

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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#3 Post by anomalous howard » Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:59 pm

I think there are too many unknown variables to even begin ascribing cause and effect in that particular aspect of solar system dynamics.
The "Earth-facing quiet" that has been noted by some observers seems to be more than just a statistical anomaly though.

The Earth's magnetic pole movement AND the "Earth-facing quiet" may both be a result of a 3rd, as yet unidentified, influence or combination of influences.

It would be good to know when, exactly(ish), the "Earth-facing quiet" phase began with more detail on how it has progressed.
At the moment I would hazard to say that both sides of the Sun are now damn quiet.
The magnetic polar excursion started many decades ago but maybe there's a critical juncture in its progress that is related to a phase of sunspot "Earth-facing quiet".
Not enough data.

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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#4 Post by anomalous howard » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:37 am

Bringing this post over here:
viewtopic.php?p=1932#p1932

And additionally:
A recent "explanation" for the pole shift. I'm not ready to buy into it at this point. There's no mention of the concurrent movement of the South Magnetic Pole and treats the North's movement as an isolated event.
09 JANUARY 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00007-1

"The release of the World Magnetic Model has been postponed to 30 January due to the ongoing US government shutdown."

"Something strange is going on at the top of the world. Earth’s north magnetic pole has been skittering away from Canada and towards Siberia, driven by liquid iron sloshing within the planet’s core. The magnetic pole is moving so quickly that it has forced the world’s geomagnetism experts into a rare move.

On 15 January, they are set to update the World Magnetic Model, which describes the planet’s magnetic field and underlies all modern navigation, from the systems that steer ships at sea to Google Maps on smartphones.

The most recent version of the model came out in 2015 and was supposed to last until 2020 — but the magnetic field is changing so rapidly that researchers have to fix the model now. “The error is increasing all the time,” says Arnaud Chulliat, a geomagnetist at the University of Colorado Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Centers for Environmental Information.

The problem lies partly with the moving pole and partly with other shifts deep within the planet. Liquid churning in Earth’s core generates most of the magnetic field, which varies over time as the deep flows change. In 2016, for instance, part of the magnetic field temporarily accelerated deep under northern South America and the eastern Pacific Ocean. Satellites such as the European Space Agency’s Swarm mission tracked the shift.

By early 2018, the World Magnetic Model was in trouble. Researchers from NOAA and the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh had been doing their annual check of how well the model was capturing all the variations in Earth’s magnetic field. They realized that it was so inaccurate that it was about to exceed the acceptable limit for navigational errors.

Wandering pole...
“That was an interesting situation we found ourselves in,” says Chulliat. “What’s happening?” The answer is twofold, he reported last month at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in Washington DC.

First, that 2016 geomagnetic pulse beneath South America came at the worst possible time, just after the 2015 update to the World Magnetic Model. This meant that the magnetic field had lurched just after the latest update, in ways that planners had not anticipated.

Image
Source: World Data Center for Geomagnetism/Kyoto Univ.

Second, the motion of the north magnetic pole made the problem worse. The pole wanders in unpredictable ways that have fascinated explorers and scientists since James Clark Ross first measured it in 1831 in the Canadian Arctic. In the mid-1990s it picked up speed, from around 15 kilometres per year to around 55 kilometres per year. By 2001, it had entered the Arctic Ocean — where, in 2007, a team including Chulliat landed an aeroplane on the sea ice in an attempt to locate the pole.

In 2018, the pole crossed the International Date Line into the Eastern Hemisphere. It is currently making a beeline for Siberia.

The geometry of Earth’s magnetic field magnifies the model’s errors in places where the field is changing quickly, such as the North Pole. “The fact that the pole is going fast makes this region more prone to large errors,” says Chulliat.

To fix the World Magnetic Model, he and his colleagues fed it three years of recent data, which included the 2016 geomagnetic pulse. The new version should remain accurate, he says, until the next regularly scheduled update in 2020.

Core questionsIn the meantime, scientists are working to understand why the magnetic field is changing so dramatically. Geomagnetic pulses, like the one that happened in 2016, might be traced back to ‘hydromagnetic’ waves arising from deep in the core 1. And the fast motion of the north magnetic pole could be linked to a high-speed jet of liquid iron beneath Canada 2.

The jet seems to be smearing out and weakening the magnetic field beneath Canada, Phil Livermore, a geomagnetist at the University of Leeds, UK, said at the American Geophysical Union meeting. And that means that Canada is essentially losing a magnetic tug-of-war with Siberia.

“The location of the north magnetic pole appears to be governed by two large-scale patches of magnetic field, one beneath Canada and one beneath Siberia,” Livermore says. “The Siberian patch is winning the competition.”

Which means that the world’s geomagnetists will have a lot to keep them busy for the foreseeable future."

And then...again...my own map showing the North Magnetic Pole to be already where it was projected to in 2020. Across the International Date line (Prime Meridion)
Image

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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#5 Post by anomalous howard » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:46 pm

Suspicious 0bserver commentary on the article about the 2016 acceleration of the North Magnetic Pole shift:


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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#6 Post by anomalous howard » Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:20 pm

Sooooooo: Recent observations/notable events


https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geos ... ation-maps
GEOSPACE GROUND MAGNETIC PERTURBATION MAPS
Image

at 9:06


http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/index.html
Image
http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/igrf/anime/index.html

“The location of the north magnetic pole appears to be governed by two large-scale patches of magnetic field, one beneath Canada and one beneath Siberia,” Livermore says. “The Siberian patch is winning the competition.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00007-1

"patches"...or Poles...??
Image

Effect on polar vortex/weather patterns? https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d
Image

Image

http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/poles/dmvar.html
Geomagnetic dipole moment in the past for 180 years.
Image


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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#7 Post by anomalous howard » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:01 pm

At 10:05 into today's video, Maverickstar proposes a very intriguing offer/opportunity:

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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#8 Post by carefix » Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:33 pm

Just an odd thought based on lack of knowledge BUT...

The Good ole BBC has reported two days of record high temperatures in February in the UK followed by: Global Warming, Global Warming, Global Warming propaganda of the usual kind. They of course omit to mention 100s of all time record lows in the US and some in central europe. They also forget to mention that all events can be tied to meridional Jet Stream flows....

The latter as I partialy understand are something to do with falling solar magnetic fields and the solar wind but I am currently not up to date.

However it has occured to me that while GSM meridional flows seem to becoming established although we have not yet seem significant global cooling (and I would not yet expect to) in part because of EMSO conditions.

Well just imagine that the meridional lobes are becoming established in their current positions for the whole of the Eddy GSM. Of course it is very possible that it is too early to tell...

In which case it would seem that the lobe which covered the UK and europe (presumably) during the Maunder has migrated somewhat to the East, perhaps by 2-400 miles. Such a migration of lobes would not have too much of a beneficial impact on the US/Russia/China but would have a very significant impact on the western fringes of europe, esp. UK/Ireland. These islands could find themselves with little cooling or even some warming during the Eddy...

But why should the lobes migrate in this way?

The complementary question of course should be why did they adopt their positions during the Maunder? Or at other times?

The answer might be that while they appear to be positioned relative to the geological pole they are in fact positioned relative the the magnetic North pole which might make sense as the solar and geomagnetic pole are coupled and so the meridional lobe patterns move with the magnetic pole! Wow! I got there.

Perhaps there would be some de-leveraging relative to polar displacements?.

This would be awesome news for the British Isles at least and we could expect the polar vortex to migrate slowly Eastwards if the polar wander continues.

Based on the southerly winds that came into the UK last spring immediately after winter leaving much of the UK warmer than usual with significant drought conditions (again because the UK was outside the european lobe) maybe this new pattern will become the new normal?

Anyway, Just a thought and probably wrong so please dismiss this notion if you can.

It would be great if true. In any case there could be a kind of justice in the notion as the AGW fraud started in this country so maybe we should suffer the penalty of (localised) global warming while the rest of of the NH freezes its ass off!

Dream on..

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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#9 Post by carefix » Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:38 pm

Forgot to mention the N mag pole was about 60-70 dgrees North over Canada during the LIA.... It is now 90N from London and heading East.

Hope the polar vortex goes that way too.

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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#10 Post by carefix » Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:23 pm

Of course it would seem that southerly going polar vortex lobes seem to be biased to position themselves over land rather than the oceans. During the LIA I think that NOAA have it that the N Atlantic was warm and the Northern Pacific too hence Alaska was quite benign as a result...

This land effect might dominate any effect due to magnetic pole position but give way to such a biasing effect this time around and the significantly displaced pole. I mean if Alaska can be comfy why not Ireland? Maybe in twent years tourists will be wandering around the Tromso orange groves? The Cork mango swamps?

I'm still looking for an out....

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