Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

Grand Solar Minimum: Science behind the cycles and effects, as well as historical analysis.
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dirtmurphy
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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#11 Post by dirtmurphy » Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:22 pm

Hey Carefix, I've thought about the same thing happening here in the US. Maybe it will at some point but for the short term, I believe that the sun's action (or rather inaction) is still going to be the main driver. Here's why: during times of low solar activity, the jet streams weaken and become wavy. They are tightened when we receive solar flares. As the poles migrate further I think there is a chance that our shared thought will come into play. Are you familiar with Ben Davidson's work?

anomalous howard
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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#12 Post by anomalous howard » Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:41 am

Hi carefix,
The important thing for both England/Western Europe and the Eastern US as far as the stationary meridional lobe (being a low pressure system trough, meterologically speaking) is the phenomenon commonly known as the "Greenland Block" -- a high pressure ridge. If a Greenland block is in place, the meridional lobes, or low pressure troughs, also remain stationary.
However, even during a GSM, weather will continue to be a dynamic system so "stationary" patterns will not remain stationary for beyond a certain time-frame. There will likely be 3 month stretches where the blocking pattern is exhibited 80% of the time. And 3 month stretches where it is more fluid.
So, if you take a sequential aggregate of 3 month periods over several years, the 80% times will appear more often or less often resulting in a stretch of a few years where conditions are particularly harsh followed by a stretch of relatively milder years.
It's that variability that puts stress on planning for food production. It's a "just when you thought it was safe to go into the water again" kind of thing.

Here's a pair of charts that show the variable nature of weather during a GSM period and how it can fool all of the people some of the time ---
Onset of the Little Ice Age: The temperature trend was down but some years falsely hinted at recovery. The same thing will happen during the Eddy Minimum.
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From http://www.longrangeweather.com/Long-Ra ... Trends.htm
Use "Select Date Range"

dirtmurphy
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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#13 Post by dirtmurphy » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:32 am

Fantastic work as always my Anomalous friend! I'm going to bookmark this site and I hope everyone checks it out. Thanks for sharing it!

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Re: Tracking Magnetic North: The Pesky Wildcard of the Eddy Minimum

#14 Post by Kink » Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:03 pm

Any significance to this gif Howard?
Image

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